Food inflation is now expected to reach over 9 per cent by the end of the year, according to the latest forecast from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF).

The industry body previously expected that the rate of food inflation would reduce in 2026, and the previous forecast was 3 per cent by the end of the year.

However, because of the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of oil and gas production facilities across the Middle East due to the ongoing conflict, inflation is expected to increase.

Agriculture has also been affected as the cost of red diesel has increased by 80 per cent since the start of the conflict.

The current revision on food inflation estimates is based on the predictions that the Strait of Hormuz opens to cargo routes within the next two to three weeks and the majority of the key facilities, including oil, gas and fertiliser sites, return to normal within a year.

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Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist, The FDF, said: “The food and drink sector is already feeling the force of this geopolitical shock. As one of the UK’s energy-intensive industries, manufacturers are facing mounting energy bills, rising transport and packaging costs and disruption across key supply chains.

“The current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict; however, given the scale and speed of these cost increases, and despite companies’ best efforts not to pass price increases on, it’s clear that food inflation is going to rise in the months ahead.”

Additionally, UK exporters of popular products to the Middle East, were paused or cancelled due to the ongoing disruption to trade.

According to the FDF, the medium- and larger-sized businesses will be able to reduce the impact of fluctuations with a mixture of contract lengths; however, smaller producers are already facing cost spikes.

Moving forward, the FDF advised that the Government helps to ease pressure on food and drink manufacturers by delaying new policies that include the Nutrient Profiling Model (NPM), Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and Deposit Return Scheme (DRS).