Food prices are on course to be 50 per cent higher in November than they were at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in 2021, new research suggests.

Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit found that climate and energy shocks have driven a sharp acceleration in grocery inflation, with food prices rising in five years at roughly the same pace as they had over the previous two decades.

The thinktank said the rate of food price growth has almost quadrupled since 2021, as volatile oil and gas prices, higher fertiliser costs and extreme weather events continue to feed through into supermarket prices.

The findings suggest that food inflation is likely to remain a major pressure on households throughout 2026, particularly as the war in the Middle East threatens to push up energy, transport and fertiliser costs further.

The Bank of England has warned that food inflation could rise to 7 per cent by the end of the year.

According to the ECIU, products including pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate and eggs are already at least 50 per cent more expensive than five years ago. Beef prices have risen 64 per cent, while olive oil prices have more than doubled.

The thinktank said these increases reflect how exposed many grocery categories are to global energy prices, synthetic fertiliser costs and climate disruption, including droughts, floods and heatwaves in the UK and key import markets.

Its research found that these pressures added an average of £605 to household food bills across 2022 and 2023.

More recently, five climate-affected products – butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee – have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation.

Food Foundation executive director Anna Taylor warned that the poorest families were running out of options as grocery prices continued to climb.

“Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate,” she said.

“When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.”

The ECIU warned that inflationary pressure could intensify further, with the Middle East conflict pushing up oil and gas prices and scientists forecasting that 2027 could become the hottest year on record.

ECIU food and farming analyst Chris Jaccarini said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike.

“Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Niño effect kicking off this year. Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years.”

After adjusting for average wages, the ECIU said food prices have risen by 11 per cent since the start of the cost-of-living crisis.

It said this has compounded pressure from other essential household costs, including energy and water bills, leaving shoppers with limited ability to absorb further increases.

Sign up here to get the latest grocery and food news each morning