Shoplifting incidents could rise by as much as 150 per cent year-on-year as Halloween falls on a Saturday, according to retail intelligence firm SAI.

The warning comes as supermarkets and convenience retailers prepare for increased demand for Halloween food, confectionery, drinks and seasonal products, with the Saturday date expected to drive higher footfall and more evening celebrations.

SAI’s One Platform data, which draws on more than 1,000 UK retail locations and more than 30,000 cameras each day, found shoplifting increased by 67 per cent above the daily average on Halloween in 2025.

SAI forecasts incidents could reach 2.5 times the level recorded during last year’s Halloween.

The firm identified partial payment as the most common form of attempted theft, accounting for 58 per cent of incidents. This was followed by grab-and-go theft at 33 per cent and item switching at self-checkouts at 8 per cent.

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However, the risk comes as Halloween continues to become a significant seasonal sales opportunity.

Research from the National Retail Federation found Halloween spending is expected to reach £10.2bn in 2026, up from a record $13.1bn in 2025, although the figures relate to the US market.

In the UK, Halloween has also evolved from a single evening into a broader seasonal occasion, with shoppers buying pumpkins, sweets, party food, drinks and decorations over an extended period.

SAI head of UK Clare Hoole said Halloween provides retailers with an opportunity to begin their peak trading campaigns, but warned the increased sales potential also brings additional risk.

“While Halloween is now one of the biggest sales events of the UK retail calendar,” Hoole said, heightened footfall alongside ongoing pressure on household finances means the event has become an increasing target for theft.

The forecast comes amid continued pressure on UK household finances, with retail sales falling 0.4 per cent month on month in September and consumer confidence suffering its sharpest decline since the Covid-19 pandemic in October.

Photo by Billy Mangino on Unsplash