The pressure on UK household finances is increasing, with global supply chain uncertainty set to drive up costs in the upcoming months, according to the latest figures from the Asda Income Tracker.

The research found that the lowest-earning households continued to fall further behind in February, with a reported £72 weekly shortfall which left people unable to cover basic living costs.

However, middle-income households experienced the strongest growth with disposable income increasing by 16.3 per cent, which was equivalent to an extra £2.02 per week.

The high-income households remain largely unaffected by the price increase in essentials, including food, which makes up a smaller portion of their spending.

Sam Miley, head of forecasting and thought leadership at Cebr, said: “February 2026 saw annual growth in the Asda Income Tracker dip below 1.0% once again, driven primarily by another month of elevated unemployment and slowing earnings growth.

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“Slowing real earnings growth would have been expected to support easing inflation; however, recent developments in the Middle East significantly complicate that outlook.

“Disruptions to energy infrastructure and shipping capacity in the region have driven up commodity prices substantially, which would be expected to filter through to UK consumers from March onwards. This shock has substantially elevated the risk of a decline in the Income Tracker in the coming months.”

Overall inflation remained steady at 3 per cent, which is the lowest level since March 2025; however, the Group cautioned that global instability is likely to add pressure to budgets in the months ahead.

The figures showed that there was a slowdown in food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation from 3.6 per cent in January to 3.3 per cent in February.

The outlook for the Asda Income Tracker has become more complex due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is expected to significantly raise costs for businesses and price readjustments.