Retail sales dip as consumer uncertainty around Budget dampens spending

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Retail sales volumes fell in October as retailers suggest low consumer confidence and uncertainty around the Budget announcement affected sales.

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, retail sales volumes dipped 0.7% last month, following a rise of 0.1% in September.

However, more broadly, sales volumes rose 0.8% in the three months to October, when compared with the three months to July 2024.

Across food stores, volume sales also fell 0.6%, however this was up from a decline of 1.9% in September, while online, food stores value sales dipped 0.4%., down from a rise of 1.4% the month prior.


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Across the entire sector, the amount spent online fell by 1.2% during October 2024, but rose by 5% when compared with October 2023.

British Retail Consortium director of insight Kris Hamer said: “While October produced a positive start to the ‘golden quarter’, with year-on-year growth for the fourth month in a row, there was a monthly decline due to pre-Budget jitters from households.

“Retailers face over £7bn of additional costs in 2025 alone, as changes to Employers’ National Insurance contributions, the increase in minimum wage, and new packaging taxes come into effect. These changes will pile pressure onto an industry that already pays far more than its fair share in business taxes, and will make job losses and store closures inevitable.

“To avoid a cliff edge of costs in April 2025, government must reconsider the existing timelines for the new packaging levy, while ensuring any changes to business rates offer a meaningful reduction for all retailers as early as possible.”

Last week, UK retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons, warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves that her decision to increase employers’ National Insurance contributions in the Budget will lead to “inevitable” job cuts and price rises.

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Retail sales dip as consumer uncertainty around Budget dampens spending

Supermarket trolley - re retail

Retail sales volumes fell in October as retailers suggest low consumer confidence and uncertainty around the Budget announcement affected sales.

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, retail sales volumes dipped 0.7% last month, following a rise of 0.1% in September.

However, more broadly, sales volumes rose 0.8% in the three months to October, when compared with the three months to July 2024.

Across food stores, volume sales also fell 0.6%, however this was up from a decline of 1.9% in September, while online, food stores value sales dipped 0.4%., down from a rise of 1.4% the month prior.


Subscribe to Grocery Gazette for free

Sign up here to get the latest grocery and food news each morning


Across the entire sector, the amount spent online fell by 1.2% during October 2024, but rose by 5% when compared with October 2023.

British Retail Consortium director of insight Kris Hamer said: “While October produced a positive start to the ‘golden quarter’, with year-on-year growth for the fourth month in a row, there was a monthly decline due to pre-Budget jitters from households.

“Retailers face over £7bn of additional costs in 2025 alone, as changes to Employers’ National Insurance contributions, the increase in minimum wage, and new packaging taxes come into effect. These changes will pile pressure onto an industry that already pays far more than its fair share in business taxes, and will make job losses and store closures inevitable.

“To avoid a cliff edge of costs in April 2025, government must reconsider the existing timelines for the new packaging levy, while ensuring any changes to business rates offer a meaningful reduction for all retailers as early as possible.”

Last week, UK retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons, warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves that her decision to increase employers’ National Insurance contributions in the Budget will lead to “inevitable” job cuts and price rises.

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