The government’s plans for the proposed changes to the Nutrient Profiling Model (NPM), which will alter advertising and promotion restrictions, are set to have a multi-million-pound impact on the food industry, according to a report from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF).

Research from the Oxford Economics report found that the changes to the NPM will cost food and drink manufacturers £2,812 per product compared to the government’s estimate of just £53 per product.

Additionally, the surveyed manufacturers will lose an estimated £10 million each on average as part of investment costs spent developing healthier products to back the new regulations, as the new products will now be classified as ‘less healthy’ under the new rules.

According to the trade body, the gap is a reflection of the underestimation in the government’s figures of the time required to interpret and implement the changes across the product ranges alongside additional costs such as updating IT systems.

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Kate Halliwell, chief scientific officer of the FDF, said: “This analysis shows DHSC has significantly underestimated both the cost and impact of its proposals on food manufacturers while relying on limited evidence to support its health claims.

“At a time when food businesses are already under intense cost pressure, these proposals will add further strain on the sector and, perversely, risk removing from shop shelves many of the products that help consumers make healthier choices.”

The FDF predicted that business costs will be passed onto shoppers, with the industry already under significant pressure due to the conflict in Iran, and estimated that the food inflation could reach between 9 per cent and 10 per cent.

The research also found that there would be a 40 per cent rise in products that could not be advertised or promoted, which is double the Government’s estimate of 22 per cent.

Foods including high-fibre breakfast cereals and fruit yoghurts as well as healthier swaps such as lower-sugar cakes and lower-salt crisps would not pass the proposed NPM and be classified as ‘less healthy’.

The FDF is calling on the government to rethink the NPM policies moving forward and implement other regulations, such as mandatory reporting on healthier food sales across the entire sector.

Halliwell added: “We urge government to work with industry on a more proportionate approach that protects consumer access to healthier options while promoting healthier diets.”