Ukraine’s wheat harvest predicted to fall by 35%, raising fears of global shortage

Wheat production in Ukraine is likely to be at least a third lower than in normal years, according to satellite analysis company Kayrros.

Kayrros has waned war has taken a toll on Ukraine’s agriculture and food supplies, sparking fears of shortages or higher prices globally.

Ukraine, one of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat, produced about 33 million tonnes of wheat last year, and exported 20 million tonnes making it the sixth-largest exporter globally.

As it stands, the country only has the potential to produce about 21 million tonnes of wheat, down 23% on average over the previous five years.

READ MORE: UK wheat exports expected to double for year ahead

Furthermore, As fighting and disruption continue in the east – where the main wheat-growing regions are found – Kayrros estimated that the harvest is likely to be down by at least 35% this year compared with 2021.

“It is not just a question of how much wheat Ukraine will harvest but how much it will manage to export,” Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera said to The Guardian.

“Normally 90% of grain exports flow through ports into the Black Sea but we are not going to see that [because of Russian military action].”

The news comes after global wheat prices jumped up by 20% in March due to the war in Ukraine, as well as higher energy and fertiliser prices around the world.

Prices are expected to remain high as it is unlikely that leading global producers can increase their production to make up for the loss because of soaring fertiliser prices.

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