UK supermarkets could see shortages and higher prices across fresh produce, meat and dairy as the conflict in Iran puts pressure on global food supply chains.

Food supply chains expert Professor Chris Elliott told The Independent that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive up grocery prices and disrupt supplies, with fuel and fertiliser shipments trapped in the Gulf.

Fresh fruit and vegetables are expected to be among the categories most exposed, with potatoes, cucumbers, tomatoes, peppers, grapes and strawberries all potentially affected.

Farmers are facing higher costs for fuel and fertiliser, which could hit crop yields and make some produce more expensive to grow and transport.

Elliott warned there were “real, serious” concerns over the downstream impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on food availability and pricing.

He said food inflation could reach as high as 10 per cent by the end of the year, creating further pressure for consumers already grappling with high living costs.

Dr Derek Watson, associate professor in cultural management at the University of Sunderland, said rising costs could eventually filter through to supermarket shelves.

“When you’re not getting your crop yields, eventually that’s going to manifest in items not being able to be delivered to supermarkets,” he said.

Elliott added that some farmers had already decided not to plant crops this year because they did not expect to make their money back.

“The consequences will be six months to 12 months from now, more shortages, more price increases, and it will all stem back from the issues around fertiliser,” he said.

Greenhouse-grown produce, including lettuce and tomatoes, could also be hit by rising energy costs, as these crops rely heavily on electricity and gas.

Meat and dairy categories are also at risk of disruption. Experts said chicken, pork and milk could be affected by higher refrigeration and logistics costs, alongside potential shortages of carbon dioxide.

CO2 is used in meat packaging to extend shelf life, as well as in slaughtering animals and refrigeration systems.

A leaked government document, first reported by The Times, warned that CO2 supplies could fall to just 18 per cent of current levels.

“For meat and dairy, the big impact will be the cost of refrigeration,” Elliott said. “It costs a lot more to run refrigerators. It costs more for the refrigerated lorries to move across the country.”

The National Farmers’ Union has estimated that milk prices could rise within the next three to six months.

The warnings come as ministers acknowledge that UK households may need to adapt their shopping habits if disruption continues.

Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has said consumers may have to change what they buy, while chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones warned that the UK could face higher prices, including for food, for at least eight months after the conflict ends.

Experts have also raised concerns that fears of shortages could trigger a return to panic buying, with toilet paper, bread, meat and drinks among the products most likely to be stockpiled by shoppers.

Watson said consumers may react quickly if they see prices rising, pointing to shopping behaviour during the Covid pandemic.

“You get products like toilet rolls disappearing,” he said. “You’ll see people maybe stockpiling chicken, pork, drinks, like gin and tonic, and so forth.”

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