It is a week on since US President Donald Trump announced that a minimum 10% tariff would be applied on all UK imports to the US as of 5 April, providing fresh challenges for retailers and brands.

The nature of global supply chains means that goods move around the world. Complicated products such as cars or electronics can be assembled from items made in multiple countries, meaning that any additional tariff is likely to increase costs and drive inflation upwards. But even simple products such as food items could be affected, and any UK items exported to the US will become more expensive for US customers.

Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia are among the countries that the initial round of tariffs were applied to. However from today (9 April), some nations will be hit with even higher tariffs. This includes an additional 54% tariff on Chinese imports, 49% on Cambodian products, 46% on Vietnamese goods and 20% on items from the EU.

Prior to the official announcement made by Trump, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had already downgraded UK and global economic growth forecasts over concerns that trade wars could drive up inflation.

The OECD reduced its prediction for UK growth in 2025 by 0.3 percentage points to 1.4%, and by 0.1 percentage points for 2026, to 1.2%. Global growth forecasts were cut by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 to 3.3%.

While the UK faces lower tariffs than some countries, companies remain concerned about their impact. This includes many in the grocery sector. We take a look at how UK supermarkets, agriculture, supply chain and alcohol brands may be affected.

Supermarkets

While a retail source told Grocery Gazette that supermarkets should be fairly unaffected by the increase, as they import/export very little food from/to the US, they said the impacts are more likely to be indirect, such as global inflationary pressure.

British Retail Consortium director of food and sustainability Andrew Opie said: “Trade barriers create uncertainty for businesses, increasing global prices of goods and putting further pressure on inflation. Retailers in the UK already face significant cost pressures from rising employer NICs, higher NLW (National Living Wage), and a new packaging tax; further global cost pressures would be unwelcome for retailers and their customers alike.”

Supermarkets may not be the hardest hit in the grocery sector, however. Last week, M&S chair Archie Norman warned that the retailer’s launch of its Percy Pig sweets in the US could be scrapped altogether.

Speaking at the Retail Technology Show, he said: “We might have to change our minds,” adding that while tariffs wouldn’t stop international growth, they “could push up prices and make them less popular.”

Alcohol firms

In February, ahead of the tariff announcements, French spirits group Pernod Ricard revealed that it was cutting its sales guidance to expect a “low single-digit” fall in organic sales this year, despite previously predicting a return to growth. The notice was a result of fears surrounding possible US tariffs.

Agriculture

National Farmers Union (NFU) president Tom Bradshaw said: “While this is a developing and concerning situation, we are working in genuine partnership with the government and sharing our expertise on this to ensure, if there is any market disruption in response to a change in the movement of goods and products between affected countries, we can respond swiftly.

“The United States is the largest market for British agri-food products outside of the European Union and our farmers are proud to supply high quality, authentic, and unique British meats and cheeses to American consumers. We stand united in our desire to work together to ensure British farmers and growers are at the forefront of any decision-making and will continue to work hand in glove with government as the situation develops.”

Supply chain

Raw materials supplier ACI Group’s CEO, Karsten Smet, said: “The consensus is that the UK has gotten off lightly with ‘only’ 10% tariffs, and select industries like pharma are exempt, but it’s a bit like being slapped in the face rather than kicked in the nether regions – we’d still be better off without it.

“Taken in the round, the shockwaves this will send through global supply chain, the volatility it has created in the dollar, and the threat of retaliation are all harmful to British businesses looking to trade internationally, especially SMEs.

“It’s important to move quickly and carefully when navigating these choppy waters. Businesses cannot afford to leave their fates in the hands of government trade negotiators given the many complexities at play. We are actively modelling scenarios and building new contingencies to support our customers through these challenges, and I would encourage any business to take the same proactive approach.”