Food retail experts speak to Grocery Gazette about which supermarkets they think will be the biggest winners and losers of 2024 and why.
Really Good Culture retail specialist Phil McMahon
Winner: Aldi
“It is just so, so good at maintaining relentless focus on its mission to deliver the lowest-priced basket of groceries for shoppers. It doesn’t allow themselves to get distracted by trying to be all things to all people and this is the competitive advantage it holds. There’s a question mark surrounding the increasing number of brands being stocked in its stores, but ultimately it gives shoppers who may already be primed to switch allegiance another reason to abandon Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda – who have possibly caught themselves in a trap of promoting Aldi via “Aldi Price Match” comms for eternity. And with its plan to get to 1,500 stores, more and more shoppers will be presented with the opportunity to save more at Aldi.”
Loser: Morrisons
“At the other end of the scale, I think Morrisons needs a big win more than all the others in 2024. It never seems to evolve fast enough or be first to announce game-changing initiatives and, speaking as a customer, its stores just aren’t exciting enough. Its new chief executive has acknowledged the need for an overhaul but it will need to come fast. It can take time to for new leadership to make its mark on an organisation as big and complex as Morrisons, and Lidl could overtake them in market share in the next 18 months.”
Global Data associate retail analyst Joe Dawson
Winner: M&S
“Marks & Spencer has been a shining light on the high street, as its value for money and high-quality food offers continue to attract shoppers who are trading away from eating out at restaurants. It is well placed to continue attracting new customers in 2024, as inflation slows and consumer finances become more stable.”
Loser: Morrisons
“Morrisons had a year to forget in 2023, and despite promising leadership changes will be hard-pressed to regain market share lost to discounters and supermarket rivals and find its way back into the “Big 4”.
CTI Digital CEO Chris Woodward
Winner: Asda
“Asda under the Issa brothers is the retailer to watch. Its strategy has had time to take root, and interest rates are coming down (which frees up capital from their debt mountain to channel into innovation and growth).
Loser: Waitrose
“Sadly Waitrose is in for an average 2024. Outgoing JLP Chair, Sharon White, has failed to understand the partnership and bring innovation. This will now fall to her successor and it will take time before we see improvement.”
Savvy Marketing CEO and founder Catherine Shuttleworth
Winner: Tesco
“Tesco as the biggest player has delivered a successful Christmas and looks well set to carry that momentum forwards in 2023 particularly as it will benefit from growing volumes and leveraging their buying position quicker than anyone else.
Loser: Morrisons
“After a challenging Christmas Morrisons will continue to grow slowly. There is a significant amount of work to be done on rebuilding volume whilst managing some tricky strategic challenges in 2024.”
Rapleys, partner and head of retail Richard Curry
Winner: M&S
“Marks & Spencer will be the overall winner of 2024 having successfully adapted its strategy to suit changing retail needs of its customer base location upon location. ‘Knickers and Snickers’ formats have worked to capture out of town shoppers who spend more per visit.
Loser: Asda
“I think Asda will continue to be curtailed by its non-foodstore specialist owners and centralised operations which has limited its ability to adapt to buyers wants and needs and differential between regional audiences. Its focus is also more on the forecourt and convenience offer and despite the market, it will continue to open up as many stores as possible to enhance sales to satisfy their owners, especially as the cost of the debt to buy Asda will significantly increase next year.”
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