Aldi predicted to overtake Morrisons by 2023

Aldi is predicted to to overtake Morrisons as the UK’s fourth largest supermarket in less than a year, according to data taken from the most recent Kantar results.

The latest take-home grocery figures were released on Tuesday, revealing that Aldi’s sales had risen by 7.9%, taking its UK market share to 9% – just behind Morrisons, which claimed 9.6% market share in the 12-week period to 12 June.

Morrisons is currently one of the Big 4 Grocers – the UK’s four largest supermarkets. Tesco has secured the largest market share, at 27.3%, while Sainsbury’s currently holds 14.9% of the market and Asda has 13.7%.

With just 0.6% between them, Aldi is expected to overtake Morrisons’ 9.6% market share by this time next year, according to the latest figures.

In the last five months, Aldi’s market share has grown by 1.2%, while Morrisons has fallen by 0.3%. Historic Kantar data shows a similar pattern over the past five years, with the data showing Aldi has grown its market share by 2.1% while Morrisons has dropped by 1.1%.

If that trajectory continues, Aldi is expected to become the UK’s fourth most popular supermarket by June 2023.

READ MORE: Grocery bills set to rise by £380 as supermarket food prices soar by 8.3% 

Lidl – the fastest-growing supermarket in the last three-months – saw sales jump by 9.5% to secure a 6.9% market share. It is expected to overtake Morrisons in roughly four-and-a-half years.

Discounters traditionally account for 20% of the grocery retail market in Europe,  indicating there is still around 5% to be grabbed by Aldi and Lidl in the future.

These changes could also be accelerated, given the worsening cost-of-living crisis and dramatic increase in food prices this year.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said the shift is due to a combination of consumers choosing cheaper alternatives and increasing numbers of discount stores opening, giving shoppers more choice.

“Shoppers have swapped branded items, which have declined by 1%, for own-label products.

“Sales of these lines, which are often cheaper, have risen by 2.9%, boosted by Aldi and Lidl’s strong performances, both of whom have extensive own-label repertoires.”

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