UK meat and poultry prices edged down for the first time last month, but escalating instability in the Middle East could quickly change that picture.

The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers’ (AIMS) February tracker showed overall month-on-month prices falling by -0.16 per cent (-£0.02/kg). Beef (-0.45 per cent), pork (-0.56 per cent) and chicken (-0.43 per cent) all declined, while lamb rose +0.58 per cent.

However, the annual comparison tells a different story. Prices are up 11.99 per cent year on year (£1.32/kg), with beef driving the surge. Lean minced beef has jumped £2.55/kg (+31.91 per cent) and roasting joints are up £3.95/kg (+30.48%).

Tony Goodger, head of communications at AIMS, said pork (+1.84 per cent YoY) and chicken (+0.43 per cent) remain the ‘affordable switch’ for shoppers under pressure, but warned that geopolitical risk could feed fresh volatility into the category.

Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could force Southern Hemisphere shipments to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to two weeks to transit times and increasing fuel use by as much as 40 per cent.

Higher freight and insurance costs would ultimately be passed down the supply chain.

At the same time, Brazil (the largest poultry supplier to the Middle East and a major beef exporter) could redirect volumes into the EU under the Mercosur agreement if regional demand weakens.

That may ease European pricing and increase Irish beef flows into the UK.

Longer term, input costs such as fertiliser, animal feed and oil remain key inflationary risks.

For grocers, February’s marginal easing offers breathing space, but the meat aisle remains highly exposed to global trade routes, energy markets and geopolitical shock.