UK food and drink supply chains could face severe disruption as the looming ‘Super El Niño’ increases the risk of drought and flooding in key sourcing markets.

New WaterAid research found the climate event could create significant water stress across parts of Asia and Africa, threatening agricultural production, manufacturing and global supply chains.

The charity, working with academics from the University of Bristol and Cardiff University, analysed 44 years of rainfall data and six of the strongest previous El Niño events to identify areas most exposed to drought and flooding.

Forecasts indicated the latest El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, with above-average warming of the Pacific Ocean expected to peak between September and November.

The research highlighted risks across several markets supplying products and ingredients to the UK.

Ethiopia, a major coffee-producing country, could face drought conditions, potentially putting further pressure on coffee supplies and prices.

Indonesia was also expected to experience reduced rainfall, creating risks for palm oil production. The ingredient is widely used across grocery products including bread, spreads and other packaged foods.

Meanwhile, excessive or unpredictable rainfall could damage crops and transport infrastructure elsewhere, increasing the prospect of delays and shortages across international supply chains.

British Retail Consortium director of food and sustainability Andrew Opie warned that retailers were already dealing with mounting costs caused by extreme weather alongside oil prices, labour and taxation.

Food prices remained around 40 per cent higher than before the Covid pandemic, he said, with climate-related disruption adding further pressure to supermarket costs.

WaterAid warned that shortages of water at farms and factories, flood damage to infrastructure and disruption to workers could have knock-on effects across international supply networks.

The charity called on governments and businesses to increase investment in climate-resilient water infrastructure, including secure water supplies, rainwater harvesting and flood-resistant facilities.

The warning followed growing concern over the impact of the developing El Niño on agricultural commodities. Cocoa, coffee and sugar are among products considered particularly exposed to changing rainfall and temperatures in major producing regions.

The UK government has previously said the country has a resilient food supply chain supported by diverse sourcing, domestic production and established import routes, but acknowledged that strong El Niño events could amplify wider shocks to global food production.

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