Wet and challenging weather conditions across the UK could cut grain harvests by a fifth, according to the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
Analysis by the non-profit found that the production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape could decline by four million tonnes compared with 2023 – a reduction of 17.5%, and 21.2% compared to the 2015 to 2023 average.
The production of spring barley and oats is forecast to increase by 27% and 23% respectively compared to last year due to the larger area of spring crops forecast to be sown this year.
However, ECIU said this is not enough to offset the 26% reduction in winter wheat production, 33% decline in winter barley and 38% drop off in oilseed rape.
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ECIU land analyst Tom Lancaster told The Grocer that the “washout winter” is “likely to mean not only a financial hit for farmers, but higher imports as we look to plug the gap left by a shortfall in UK supply”.
“There’s also a real risk that the price of bread, beer and biscuits could increase as the poor harvest may lead to higher costs.”
Many other crops have also been affected by the weather conditions, including potatoes, with some UK supermarkets having shrunk potato pack sizes from 2.5kg to 2kg without a decrease in price, equating to around a 25% price increase per kilo to shoppers.
Last week, Sainsbury’s chief executive Simon Roberts said the supermarket was “working really closely with its British farmers and suppliers”.
“We’ll be finding ways of making sure that if there are impacts on the specification of some of our crops, their size, their consistency, we will work with suppliers to make sure we optimise availability without causing an impact on price.”
UK farming unions have since called on major retailers to support the industry with measures such as implementing a steadfast commitment to local sourcing, to respond “promptly to any request” from its members for a review of the terms of their contracts, including on price, as well as flexibility on product specification if produce does not fully conform to the exact description previously agreed.
